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Recover 270 orphaned daily vintages (repeat days dropped) and rescore (#222) - #234

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vahid-ahmadi merged 3 commits into
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vahid/r6-recover-apply
Nov 10, 2026
Merged

vahid-ahmadi merged 3 commits into
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vahid/r6-recover-apply

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Applies the orphaned-snapshot recovery from #228 (merged with #221) to the store, then ingests and rescores. Addresses #222.

What it adds

  • 270 vintage files under data/vintages/. Each is written byte for byte from its orphan commit in data/archive-orphaned-snapshots-2026-11 (77f3176), so vintage and fetched_utc are the originals.
  • 548 repeat days dropped (same release as the snapshot before it, compared with fetch.same_data). 0 already present, 0 conflicts.
  • No existing vintage file is modified, renamed or deleted. The rest of the diff is MANIFEST.json, latest/, calendar.ics, the economy/forecast pages, outturns.json and scorecard.json, all regenerated.
series add repeat days dropped
boe/uk_bank_rate, uk_gilt_5y, uk_gilt_10y, uk_gilt_20y; fred/us_treasury_10y 48 each 2 each
fred/us_real_gdp, us_federal_funds_rate 3 each 47, 43
ons/uk_gdp_cvm, uk_business_investment 1 each 26 each
the other 11 series 2 each 31–41
total 270 548

Outturns and scorecard

python3 data/refresh.py --skip-fetch on the recovered store:

  • added cpi 2026Q3 = 3.10 (vintage 2026-10-21) and gdp 2026Q2 = 1.37 (vintage 2026-09-30), the first days the store held them. Existing outturn rows are unchanged (diff is additions only).
  • Scorecard: 6 forecasts scored, 2 periods, next period 2026Q3.
  • Every refresh.GATES check passed locally (pytest 3095 passed, 80 skipped), and the append-only check is OK. data/fetch.py --check: 346 files across 20 series.

Why before #195

The store is append-only. If #195 merged first, 15 of its non-daily 5 Nov files would become permanent repeats of releases first seen earlier, and both outturns would be recorded under vintage 2026-11-05. After this merges, a fetch-vintages dispatch from main rebuilds #195; its carry step skips files main already has and drops repeats.

Commits: a218fdb (vintages, MANIFEST, latest), 6149a59 (merge main), eec28dc (refresh outputs).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

vahid-ahmadi and others added 3 commits November 10, 2026 16:48
Applied with `python3 data/recover_orphaned_snapshots.py --apply` (#228)
from data/archive-orphaned-snapshots-2026-11 (77f3176): 50 orphan
commits, 818 added vintage files, 270 kept, 548 same-release repeat
days dropped, 0 already present, 0 conflicts. Each file is written
byte for byte from its orphan commit (original vintage and
fetched_utc). MANIFEST.json and latest/ rebuilt. No tracked vintage
modified, renamed or deleted. data/fetch.py --check: OK, 346 files
across 20 series.

Per series: bank rate, gilt 5y/10y/20y, US 10y 48 each; US real GDP,
fed funds 3 each; ONS GDP, business investment 1 each; the other 11
series 2 each.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
`python3 data/refresh.py --skip-fetch` after the recovery commit:
outturns added cpi 2026Q3 = 3.10 (vintage 2026-10-21) and gdp 2026Q2
= 1.37 (vintage 2026-09-30), the first days the store held them.
Scorecard: 6 forecasts scored, 2 periods, next period 2026Q3. Every
refresh.py gate passed (pytest 3095 passed, 80 skipped), append-only
check OK. No notes written for back-filled dates.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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