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Archive a forecast round ahead of the next release - #238

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vahid-ahmadi wants to merge 1 commit into
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forecasts/nowcast-round
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vahid-ahmadi wants to merge 1 commit into
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forecasts/nowcast-round

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@vahid-ahmadi

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi commented Nov 11, 2026 •

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Automated round from forecasts/nowcast.py, generated by
forecast_uk on the hosted MCP server ahead of an announced ONS
release.

Merging this makes a public, permanent claim. Rounds are
append-only — CI fails any PR that edits or deletes one — so a
round that is wrong cannot be corrected, only superseded, and it
stays in the denominator of every accuracy statistic.

Check before merging:

  • the round's data_edge is the data the model was actually
    allowed to see, and the outturn it will be scored against has
    not been published yet
  • provenance.warnings is empty and provenance.ess is
    comfortably above 100 — the script refuses on the warnings it
    knows about, but read them anyway
  • the diff under forecasts/rounds/ is an addition only

The regenerated scorecard and fan charts are on this branch, so
the provenance gate passes on merge.

@vercel

vercel Bot commented Nov 11, 2026 •

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Project Deployment Actions Updated
macromod Ready Ready Preview Nov 12, 2026 5:14am UTC

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@github-actions github-actions Bot changed the title Archive the 2026-11-11 forecast round (BoE SVAR, data to 2026Q2) Archive a forecast round ahead of the next release Nov 12, 2026
@github-actions
github-actions Bot force-pushed the forecasts/nowcast-round branch from bcf528f to 1dc2592 Compare November 12, 2026 05:13

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Preview — 1dc25922 Deployed Nov 12, 2026 by vercel[bot]
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